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Prognosis in acute pancreatitis associated with HIV infection

      Abstract

      Background

      This prospective study compared scoring systems in predicting adverse outcomes in HIV associated acute pancreatitis (HIV+ve AP)

      Methods

      Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), Glasgow criteria, C-reactive protein (CRP), bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and APACHE II scores using standard cut-off values were used to predict the endpoint of moderate and severe disease in HIV−ve and HIV+ve patients and in CD4 counts above and below 200 cells/mm3.

      Results

      Ninety (38%) of 238 patients with AP were HIV+ve. Fifteen had organ failure, 33 local complications and 12 patients died. Advanced age was not associated with severe disease. The APACHE II was the best predictor of severe disease in HIV+ve (AUC 0.88) and HIV−ve patients (AUC 0.81) and CRP was the poorest predictor (AUC 0.59) in HIV+ve patients. In HIV+ve patients with CD4 counts greater and less than 200 cells/mm3 the Glasgow and APACHE II scores were the best prognosticators (AUC > 0.8) and BISAP in patients with CD4 > 200 cells/mm3 (AUC 0.90).

      Conclusion

      The APACHE II score was most effective irrespective of HIV status whereas the BISAP scores was better in CD4 > 200 cells/mm3.
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